Category Archives: Bear Down

Team Draft Analysis: Philadelphia Eagles

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Joe Christiano is FRG’s resident Eagles expert.  In this post, he takes a look at the pre-free agency Draft needs of the Philadelphia Eagles.

It’s never too early to start thinking about the NFL draft, especially for the majority of us that follow teams eliminated from NFL Super Bowl aspirations. My team/love/obsession, as you’ll get to know in the coming months, is the Philadelphia Eagles. To say the 2012 season was a train wreck is a substantial understatement. High-profile players failed to deliver even remotely close to expectations. Poor play, missed assignments, laziness and what seemed like a team that quit was evident on both sides of the ball. Leadership both in the locker room and on the football field was nonexistent. I can go on and on, but the point of this article is to get a general sense of what the Eagles should do when they’re on the clock with the 4th overall selection.

Let’s keep in mind that there are many variables that need to play out before we have a better understanding of what Philly will be looking for in the draft (specifically at #4 overall). What kind of team is new head coach Chip Kelly looking to build? Who will he hire as his defensive coordinator and will they move to a 3-4 scheme? What will be done with Michael Vick and is Nick Foles looked at as a top tier QB in Kelly’s eyes? What do Kansas City, Jacksonville & Oakland do at the top three respective picks? Do the Eagles trade up or trade out for more picks due to their multitude of needs?

The debacle that was 2012 has left the Eagles with many holes they need to fill. Offensive & defensive line, linebacker, cornerback, safety & quarterback all need to be addressed. In fact, the only positions I don’t see the Eagles drafting are running back & wide receiver.

At the #4 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles select:

jarvisjonesJarvis Jones (OLB, UGA) – The past few years have been the low point of linebackers that I’ve seen since I started analyzing the Eagles. The team started to buck the trend by trading for Demeco Ryans & drafting Mychal Kendricks, but if the team moves to a 3-4 scheme, they’ll need to add more. Enter Jarvis Jones. I drool at this kid’s talent. He’s a pass rushing beast, regularly disrupts the backfield and is constantly around the football. He’s my personal favorite for the #4 pick (assuming his health checks out OK).

deemillinerDee Milliner (CB, Ala) - The Eagles high priced cornerbacks were a colossal failure. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is set to walk in free agency. Namndi Asomugha will only be back if he takes a substantial paycut, and even then I’m not sure I want him back. Brandon Boykins could start next year, but there still needs to be a massive overhaul at corner. Milliner is absolutely the best cornerback in this draft. He has good size, great speed and has tremendous awareness & body control. He’s an incredible ball hawk. He’s physical and can make a play vs. the run. Milliner is a very close second behind Jones as the best bet for the Eagles at #4.

wernerBjoern Werner (DE,  Fla St) - Coming in to 2012, the Eagles seemed to be very deep at DE with stud starters Trent Cole & Jason Babin backed up by Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry. Who would’ve thought Babin would be released mid season after a borderline sack-less campaign? Cole also played well below expectations. Graham was the team’s biggest revelation, as the former 2010 1st round pick finally showed signs of being a front line starter. If the team moves to a 3-4 scheme, I just don’t see Werner fitting in. But it’s hard to ignore his dominance at DE. He’s a ferocious pass rusher and has great speed around the edge. He can also hold his own against the run. In the end, even if the Eagles stay in a 4-3, I think they have too many other, more pressing needs that selecting Werner just wouldn’t make much sense.

starStar Lotulelei (DT, Utah) – Again, in the same light as above, the Eagles defensive line in in a state of flux and relatively deep. If they switch to a 3-4, Fletcher Cox could take over NT with Trent Cole & Brandon Graham manning DE. Or Graham could move to OLB, forcing Cox to DE and creating a hole in the middle. Mike Patterson could play in the middle, but Star Lothulelei would be an instant upgrade. He’s a big boy and very agile for his size.  He  creates havoc and disruption in the backfield and can collapse the pocket against the pass. Though he seems to be a decent fit for the Eagles, I’m not sure he warrants the 4th overall selection.

JoeckelLuke Joeckel  (OT,  Texas A&M) – The Eagles offensive line was the heart of their problems this year. However, I think there’s been some very harsh & unfair criticism in that regard. When you lose three of your five starters to season ending injuries, and those three starters are good to exceptional linemen, what do you expect to happen? Granted, 2011 1st rounder Danny Watkins is looking every part a colossal bust. But you cannot replace Jason Peters (arguably the best left tackle in football) and losing Todd Herremanns & Jason Kelce adds to the brutality of the situation. That said, Peters is far from a given coming back from a twice in two months torn Achilles tendon. And even if he does return, we still have a gaping hole at RT. Enter Luke Joeckel. He’s my highest rated offensive lineman in this draft. He has everything you want in a franchise tackle – size, strength, athleticism, agility, technique, balance. He’s excellent in both run & pass blocking.  He would be an excellent choice at the #4, but my bet is he’s the number one overall pick this year.

genoGeno Smith (QB,  WVU) – QB will be one of the biggest focal points this offseason. First and foremost, what are the Eagles going to do with Michael Vick? He’s due $15M next year, with a $3M guaranteed bonus to kick in a few days after the Super Bowl. The only way I see him returning is by way of massive contract restructure, and I just don’t see it happening. Frankly, I’m fine with his release. On to Nick Foles. We saw glimpses of what could be a very good QB. We also saw a lot of areas that need improvement. The question remains, is he the man to lead the Eagles into the next era? All of these decisions rest on Chip Kelly. If he decides neither are a fit, we’ll first need to look at Geno Smith. Smith, though not an elite QB prospect, is probably this year’s best. He has great size, great pocket presence, is agile & mobile & has a great arm.  A comparison to last year’s class is not fair, as that class is a complete departure from the norm as far as elite talent is concerned. Smith will be a developmental talent with a mid-range ceiling that’s not quite elite. He’s a gamble for a team looking for that franchise QB, and you can’t fail with a pick this high in the draft. The setback ramifications are too extreme. If I’m the Eagles, I’m searching for a developmental QB in the 2nd or 3rd round, and looking at EJ Manuel (QB, Fla St.).

glennonMike Glennon (QB,  NC St) – See above for the Eagles current QB flux. Glennon is another solid talent that should be considered in the 1st round. He has tremendous size (6’6”) and pocket presence. Has a good arm, makes all the  throws and is intelligent. He’s also gaining steam with good showings at the Senior Bowl practices, looking like the best QB on the field. However, most of the scouting I’ve done reminds me of Nick Foles. We already have Nick Foles, so I’m not sure another similar type is necessary to draft, especially as high as #4 overall.

Bruce Arians: The Perfect Fit for Chicago

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emery

GM Phil Emery wants to bring “excellence” to the Chicago Bears.

The Chicago Bears fired Head Coach Lovie Smith on Monday, ending his relatively mediocre run of 9 years atop the Monsters of the Midway. It came as no surprise to FRG that Lovie Smith was in trouble, and the news of his dismissal confirmed what many analysts had expected all along: GM Phil Emery wants to bring in HIS guy.

On January 2nd, Emery held a press conference to address his decision to dismiss Lovie Smtih. He praised Lovie and all that he had accomplished during his time in Chicago, outlined the top-tier defenses under his regime and pointed out the great success Smith’s staff had with special teams and turnovers. But what was overwhelmingly clear during Emery’s address was his frustration with the offense’s woes. Emery emphasized the need for balance in Chicago; the Bears can’t win on defense and special teams alone. It’s very clear that the Chicago Bears are going to hire an offensive-minded coach to succeed the Lovie Smith-era.

Many names have been thrown around, including the early-favorite/sexy pick of Mike McCoy (OC, Denver Broncos). McCoy is being showered with praise as a result of his ability to adapt the Broncos offense from the run-heavy Tebow system to the high scoring aerial assault led by Peyton Manning. And while McCoy certainly deserves the respect he is receiving, I’d be very cautious in hiring him to be the Chicago Bears head coach. Why? Well, first, let’s not re-write history. An honest look at the 2011 Tebow-led Broncos shouldn’t be considered a credit to McCoy. In fact, it’s the opposite. Don’t forget that during the Broncos’ miraculous run of Tim Tebow come-from-behind, last minute victories, the media and football experts were saying that Denver was winning “in spite of” their offense’s woes and “because of” the stellar play of their defense. And in 2012…it’s Peyton Manning. It doesn’t take a rocket scientest to understand that Peyton Manning IS the offensive coordinator. He calls the shots. It’s his show. That said, I do give McCoy credit for understanding that and allowing Manning to do his thing. Not many coaches would put their egos aside. The fact that McCoy did (and continues to) suggests that he has a grasp of the “bigger picture” and understands what it takes to win. But I’d slow down a bit on his overall impact on either the 2011 or 2012 offense seen in Denver.

The perfect candidate for the head coaching vacancy in Chicago is Bruce Arians (OC, Indianapolis Colts). During Emery’s press conference, he stressed the concept of “excellence”; Emery wants a coach that knows how to generate excellence (I highly recommend anyone that’s interested in checking out Emery’s breakdown of excellence.). As Emery spoke of excellence, and what it takes to be excellent, one name kept coming to mind…Bruce Arians.

Bruce Arians and his offensive philosophy could be just what Chicago needs.

Bruce Arians and his offensive philosophy could be just what Chicago needs.

Bruce Arians is in the running to be the NFL’s Coach of the Year in 2012 as the Colts’ interim head coach after Chuck Pagano fell ill. Arians went 9-3 during his 12 game run and was instrumental in one of the best single-season turnarounds in NFL history. His impact on Andrew Luck’s fantastic rookie season is evident, and it’s not the first time that Arians’s offense has yielded high results from QB-driven teams. Before joining Chuck Pagano and the Colts, Arians was the driving force behind Big Ben and the Pittsburgh Steelers offense from 2007-2011. The Steelers’ offense was annually ranked in the top-half of the League under Arians’s watch and complimented Pittsburgh’s traditionally powerful defense.

Arians’s coaching resume goes deeper than just his time in Pittsburgh. In 1998, Arians served as Peyton Manning’s QB coach during his rookie season in Indianapolis (in that role from 1998-2000), and later ran the Cleveland Browns offense from 2001-2003. During his stint as Cleveland’s OC, the Browns made the playoffs (2002) while Arians juggled between Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb as his starting QB.

Arians has proven that he can not only coach through adversity, but that he’s also experienced “excellence” around him. From his time with Peyton Manning to his days in the Steel City, Bruce Arians has been around players and organizations that know what it takes to win. And when you factor in his incredible coaching performance in 2012, there’s no doubt that the time is now for Bruce Arians to be a head coach in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears offer the perfect fit for Bruce Arians and his QB-driven offensive philosophy. Jay Cutler, while tough to deal with at times, has undeniable talent. Arians will be able to do great things with him. In addition, the Bears suddenly have bona-fide skill players in Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffrey. The cupboard certainly won’t be bare. And the most appealing aspect of the Arian-Bears marriage is the fact that the defense has been built to compete “right now”. All Chicago needs is an offensive mind that can get some juice flowing and some points on the scoreboard. There’s no doubt that Arians brings that to the table.

The Chicago Bears were 10-6 in 2012 largely because of solid play by the defense and timely points off turnovers. Had they had any kind of offensive consistency, the Bears would have still been playing this weekend. Instead, they’re home, on their couches, watching teams like the Indianapolis Colts and the Bruce Arians orchestrated offense continue their quest for the Super Bowl. It’s time to bring that orchestra to Chicago.

Hire. Bruce. Arians.

Lovie Smith: Welcome to the Hot Seat

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The Chicago Bears entered their week 15 contest versus the Packers needing a win to stay alive in the NFC North race as well as the playoff standings. The Bears had lost four of their last five games, and a fifth loss in six would not only strike a blow to their playoff chances, but it would also place head coach Lovie Smith squarely on the hot seat.

Lovie Smith's 9 years in Chicago have been marred by inconsistency.

Lovie Smith’s 9 years in Chicago have been marred by inconsistency.

Fast forward to yesterday: The Bears lost…again (GB 21, Chi 13). After starting the year at 7-1, they now sit at 8-6 and look like a team that doesn’t deserve to qualify for the post-season. The defense is gassed. The offense has no identity or consistency. And what’s worse? The coaches can’t figure out how to fix it. Is Lovie to blame? Has he done enough in his nine years as head coach of the Bears to deserve the benefit of the doubt?

Lovie Smith replaced former Bears coach Dick Jauron in 2004 after Jauron had back-to-back losing seasons in 2002 and 2003 (4-12, 7-9). Lovie was a highly sought after coaching candidate during his time as the defensive coordinator of the St. Louis Rams, but his hire was curious to the Chicago fan base that was expecting a bigger name to take the reigns.

Lovie didn’t hesitate to make a strong statement as the Bears head coach. During his introductory press conference, he proclaimed that his number one goal would be to beat Green Bay; a smart maneuver to win over the fans and generate excitement for the new regime.  But after yesterday’s defeat, the Bears have lost their last six attempts at accomplishing that number one priority.

During the nine years of the Lovie Smith-era, the Bears have won 79 games while losing 63 (55% win percentage). Four of his eight completed seasons have been above .500, with 2012 being no worse than an 8-8 finish.  It’s more than likely that the Bears will win at least one of their last two games and end above .500 for the fifth time in Lovie’s tenure.

In the seasons that Lovie Smith has guided the Bears to a winning record, the results have been impressive. Lovie’s Bears have won the NFC North three times (’05, ’06, ’10), and the Bears captured the NFC Championship in 2006. Smith fell short against his mentor Tony Dungy’s Colts in Super Bowl XLI, which was only the second Super Bowl appearance in Chicago’s franchise history.

The Chicago Bears have lost 5 of their last 6 games putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy.

The Chicago Bears have lost 5 of their last 6 games putting their playoff hopes in jeopardy.

The 2011 season started much like this year in that the Bears were 7-3 after ten games and in the discussion as one of the contenders in the NFC. That is, until Jay Cutler got injured. The Bears finished 1-5, ending the year at 8-8 and Jerry Angelo took the hit for the roster’s putrid QB depth.  He was fired at season’s end. New GM Phil Emery immediately expressed his confidence in Lovie Smith even though conventional wisdom suggests that a new GM wants “their” guy at head coach. Many presumed that 2012 would go a long way in defining the Lovie Smith/Phil Emery relationship.

2012 has been one of the more disappointing seasons for the Chicago Bears. You just don’t expect to free-fall from a 7-1 start without some kind of glaring or obvious explanation. The Bears have been relatively healthy, with the injuries to Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings coming only recently. The issues with the Offensive Line were present as far back as last season and were there when the team was 7-1. So, you can’t blame that group for this 1-5 skid. Jay Cutler has been “ok”; he hasn’t been a franchise-changing field general, but he also isn’t losing games. In fact, it appears as if the Bears defense, a unit that was being compared to some of the NFL’s greatest, has failed to maintain their early-season level of play. They look gassed. They look fatigued. They look soft.

Is Lovie to blame for the defense’s struggles? Well, the buck stops with him. He’s a defensive-minded coach, and it’s the responsibility of the head coach to right the ship. Lovie tried lightening the work week leading up to the Green Bay game, and while the unit played better, they failed to make critical stops on both 3rd and 4th downs.

Lovie Smith is a good man. He coaches with class and dignity, and respects his players, the fans, and the media. The NFL needs more men like him, but as is the case with any longstanding regime, sometimes a change is needed. In Chicago, the time for change appears to be now.  Lovie Smith has done some really good things for the Bears and has brought a moderate level of success to Chicago.  However, if the Chicago Bears fail to make the playoffs for the second consecutive season as a result of second-half collapses that Lovie and his staff couldn’t find a way to coach through, then a change has to be made.

If the Bears decided to part ways with Lovie Smith, there’s no doubt that he would land on his feet and resurface as a head coach in the NFL again.  If, for example, the NY Jets decided to part ways with Rex Ryan?  Who better to bring a new culture to the Jets than Lovie Smith?  Lovie will be in demand.  But he was given nearly a decade to run the show in Chicago, and it should come as no surprise if Phil Emery starts year 2 of his era as General Manager with a head coach that he hires rather than one that he inherited from old management.